Made a SEP-IRA deposit. Still sitting on a lot of cash. Waiting.
I expect a recession, possibly triggered by mid-term elections and/or 3%+ rate on the 10-year, in late 2018. We won't know the beginning, of course, until one is officially declared in 2019, but that's my on-going prediction.
Other warning signs:
~ Flattening yield curve
~ Saving rates at historic lows
~ Stocks at historic highs / overall valuation & limited participation (FAANG)
~ Margin balances are at historic highs
~ Real estate considered "overvalued" / low to no wage growth
~ Slowdown in real estate sales
~ Bubbles (like Bitcoin and corporate junk bonds)
~ Euphoric earnings expectations/blowouts
~ Complacency and record low market volatility, until NOW!
~ Consumer optimism is at record highs
~ Rates are on an upswing / up-cycle
~ Employment *growth* is slowing or non-existent
~ Low unemployment generally (below 5%)
~ Ten years since last recession (we're overdue)
~ Shit-talking by Trump (saying he's responsible for stock market increase)
Oh, and one more bonus: Greenspan--who famously proclaimed that you cannot call out bubbles before they burst--now says we have a bubble in both the stock and bond markets. |